The US falls out….

The markets across the globe are in a queue to accept the US markets decision as DOW falls to 6-year lows. The Nifty is holding above 2735 could be a challenge as the global concern has worsen than expected.The Nifty at home was down by Budget sentiment and followed by the US concern could hold for two days above 2750. The recovery in RIL is very important as the Banking sector lost more than 15% in some stocks and around 10% in most of the heavy weights despite the expectation of rate cut on the cards.The stocks like GE shipping moved up from 187 to 225 levels now back to square. The ICICI from 360 levels to 440 levels now back to 360 levels. The effort made to move was used to exit is the main problem in the markets. The HNIs, MFs and FIIs have little conviction that the world economy will recover soon so is the Indian economy. The Nifty is good above 2803 as Reliance good above 1306. The markets today may not hold above 2780 level cold test 2704 level first and the better support exists at 2680 level. The volumes were dried up and the trading has been confined to limited stocks with high degree of volatility based on news/expectations.Today Nifty may face resistance at 2793 level may get support at 2724-29 level and next at 2703-05 level. The Reliance may face resistance at 1301-1298 level and will become weak below 1281 level may get support at 1246 level and next at 1238 level. The ONGC may face resistance at 683-86 level may get support at 662 level and next at 651-53 level. The Rel Infra may face resistance at 516 level may get support at 486 level and next at 473-71 level where the recent bottom support exists. The ICICI may face resistance at 373-75 level may get support at 341-42level. The Relcap may face resistance at 381-83 level may get support at 359-57 level. The Bharti which built huge open interest at 640 CA may see steep fall if it trades below 639 support level. The BHEL is facing resistance above 1410-12 level may correct steeply if it closes below 1350 level.The Asian Markets are trading in red with nearly1.5 - 2% cut and the ADRs were not deeply cut. The SGX Nifty is trading at 2740 level down by 52 points. The challenge now is to recover from the lows. In case the Govt willing to provide easy liquidity situation by signaling RBI to cut the CRR and Repo rate cuts to spur the local demand as the inflation is totally under control may save our markets, other wise the markets next broad range will be in a range of 2830-2420 for next quarter.

The LONG unwindings…..

The interim budget has everything for the forth coming elections but not for the industry. It is more so for the stock markets. How can we expect fire works from a Govt that faces elections with in 3 months?. The rumors were spread to attract retail positions building in longs and the HNI/operator building on the other side to make some quick money in a week. It is very unlikely that a retailer build against position.
The Nifty was at same closing level when a comparison made with a week back levels show that the stocks in F&O sector are still in the positive territory despite of the Nifty falls by100 points. The Nifty has built solid foundation of bottom building at 2660-90 for 5 consecutive days and at 2750-80 for 6 consecutive trading days. So the is very likely to get support at these levels. The recent top for Nifty was capped at 2926-69 level for 6 trading days.
The Nifty for this day could face resistance at 2857-62 level then at 2885-83 level. The support is likely to emerge at 2780 and at 2750 level. The RIL is good for long only when it trades above 1375-73 level. The RIL will become weak if it trades below 1260 level. But it may face resistance at 1351-53 level for today and the bottom support at 1291-93 level.
The ICICI took support at 406 level which I wrote in my earlier posts (……..that The banking sector build decent bottom building can trigger a rally of 10-15% from the current levels. …………The Nifty has the potential to touch 2930 level has bottom support at 2780 level and is good for Bull so long it trades above 2813-15 level. The RIL can cross 1375 has bottom support and good above 1321 level. The ICICI can touch 418 level and good above 406. The Infosys has resistance at 1315-20 region and support at 1236-42 regions………..).The Relcap took support at 396 level and SBI above 1126 level. Now the triggers for this sector are lacking but a ray of hope still alive as RBI expected to go for a rate cut soon. The RBI may announce at least 50bps rate cut in CRR to infuse more liquidity in the system after the announcement of inflation figures on Thursday.
The ONGC is weak below 694 and good above 705, ICICI may face resistance at 416-18 level and good above 429 only. The bottom support may emerge at 391-88 level. The Rel infra is good above 546 weak below 539 and the bottom support first at 505 and at 496 level.