WINNING TRENDS IN STOCK MARKETS

“PEOPLE ARE NOT DISTURBED BY THINGS RATHER BY THE VIEW OF THINGS” –ALBERT ELLIS, AN AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGIST WHO DEVELOPEDRATIONAL EMOTIVE BEHAVIOUR THERAPY.

THIS PSYCHOLOGICAL APPROACH IS APT TO MANY BUSINESS HOUSE DECISIONS BUT VERY TRUE IN STOCK MARKETS AS VIEWS BECOME PALE & FEARFUL DURING THE TIMES OF DEPRESSIVE NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTS, JUSTLIKE NIGHTMARES IN  THICK FORESTS OF ABUNDANT DESOLATION.

THE STOCK-MARKETS CLEARLY REPRESENT A FRIGHTENING CLUMSY PICTURE AT TIMES WHEN VOLITITIY AT ITS PEAK & FALL CONTINUES!!, NO MATTER HOW SEASONED SOMEBODY BUT TO OVERCOME THE NERVE WRENCHING FEAR AND FORESEE THE FUTURE BECOMES DREADFUL.

TO AVOID UNCERTAINTIES IN STOCK MARKETS ARE NOT AT ANYBODY'S COMMAND OR CAPACITY BUT EVERY PARTICIPANT'S WISH....

TO MITIGATE THE FEAR AND UNDERSTAND THE EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN CHAOS, THE FOLLOWING APPROACHES CAN BE ADOPTED FOR BETTER RESULTS AND TO KEEP PACE WITH THE MARKET TRENDS...!!

A) CONVERGENT PROCESS:

THIS APPROACH IS MORE WIDELY ACCEPTED AND FOLLOWED BY THE FIIs, DIIs AND ESPECIALLY FOR THAT MATTER MORE PRECISELY BY HEDGE FUNDS. THESE HIGH RISK SEASONED CUTTING EDGE SMART PEOPLE PLACE HIGH BETS WITH AN ANTICIPATION OF HIGH RETURNS. THE BLOOM AND GLOOM CO-EXIST MANY A TIMES BUT THEIR SPIRITS ARE VERY HIGH.

HERE, STOCK PURCHASE CONCENTRATION IS SO HIGH THAT HUGE MONEY PUMPED AND LARGE CHUNK ACQUIRED AT A REASONABLE PRICE. THE COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS, ECONOMIC &BUSINESS TRENDS AND OTHER IMPORTANT PARAMETERS ARE LITTLE KNOWN TO OTHER RETAIL PARTICIPANTS BUT GET SURPRISED WHY AND HOW THESE COUNTERS ARE HOLDING ON TO THE TOP. 

LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE VERY IMPORTANT MARKET MANAGEMENT MECHANISMS ARE PUT IN PLACE TO SEE THE PRICES RISE STEADILY AND GRADUALLY TO A LIMIT AND THEN A FINAL SHOOT UP …?. UNFORTUNATELY THE GREEDY POOR TRADERS AND RETAIL INVESTORS GET TRAPPED WHEN PARTICIPATE HEAVILY AND OFCOURSE THE WELL INFORMED SEEK AN EXIT…???

B) DIVERGENT PROCESS:

MAINLY FOLLOWED BY HNIs AND SMALL FUND HOUSES. THE PHILOSOPHY IS TO PROTECT THE CAPITAL AND INCREASE PROFITS IN BABY STEPS. THESE INVESTORS NEVER KEEP ALL EGGS IN ONE BASKET BUT PREFER DIFFERENT SECTORS. THIS DIVERGENT MEANS OF MAKING MONEY CAN OFFER SOLACE THAN ANY OTHER MODEL AS THE MARKET WAGGERIES ARE WELL TAKEN CARE. 

THESE PLAYERS ARE MODERATE IN RISK TAKING APPROACH, HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MARKETS BUT FEARFUL IN APPROACH. THEY ADOPT LONG-TERM PLAY WITH AN EYE ON SHORT-TERM GAINS, PLACE THEM IN GOOD POSITION AS THEY OFTEN TAKE-OUT PROFITS AT HIGHER LEVELS AND RE-ENTER AT LOWER LEVELS. SO, SAFE AND SECURE ALL THE TIME.

C) CHANNELLED PROCESS:

THE LADDER LIKE APPROACH IS ADOPTED BY SMART INDIVIDUALS TO ENSURE SUCCESS AT EVERY MOVE  WITH A LIMITED RESOURCE/MONEY. THEY KEEP MAINTAIN A WINNING STEAK ON BOTH THE DIRECTIONAL MOVES, SAIL ALONG WITH BULLS AND BEARS AS THEIR ADAPTABILITY & LIQUIDITY AT HAND ALLOWS SUCH FACILITY. THEY KEEP INCREASE VERY CALCULATED BETS, ALSO MAKE SUCCESS, A COMMON PHENOMENA LIKE CLIMBING A LADDER.

THESE PLAYERS ARE KNOWLEDGEABLE AND QUITE SMART IN CATCHING TRENDS IN THE MARKETS AND PLACE THEIR BETS SAFELY, ALSO MAKE SOME GOOD MONEY. THE PLAYERS SUCK EACH EMERGING OPPORTUNITIES IN STOCK MOVEMENTS BUT THEIR WELL ESTABLISHED APPROACH IS NOT KNOWN IN THE MARKET CIRCLES BUT MAKE DECENT COOL MONEY.

D) ZIG-ZAG JUMPING PROCESS: 

THIS APPROACH IS MOSTLY ADOPTED BY THE DAY TRADERS AND SWING TRADERS, ENJOY BUYING AND SELLING MANY A TIMES DURING THE DAY.THESE ENTHUSIASTIC TRADING PLAYERS ARE BACK-BONE TO MARKET LIQUIDITY AND FOR STOCK-TIPS ADVISORS. THEY KEEP ENGAGED EVERY TIME AND EACH TIME THEY TAKE A CALL AS THEIR GAME IS HIGHLY VOLATILE AND NO-BODY UNDERSTANDS WHY A BUYING IS MADE AND INSTANTLY A SELLING IS INITIATED. MANY A TIMES THEY BUY AT ONE COUNTER AND ALSO SELL ANOTHER SCRIP. ULTIMATELY, THEY ENJOY PARTICIPATION RATHER THAN MAKING MONEY.

THESE SMALL TIME RATHER INSTANT PLAYERS NEVER MAKE HUGE MONEY STORED IN THE MARKETS BUT LOSE MONEY FOR SURE, BECAUSE OF BUNDLE OF CONFUSIONS!. THE MORE THEY PLAY THE MORE THEY PAY. THEY HARDLY MAINTAIN ANY ORDER/METHOD, FIND NO TIME TO STUDY, PREFER EXTERNAL DEPENDENCY, MAINTAIN ADAMANT BEHAVIOUR TO A LOSING DEALS, RELY ON IRRATIONAL MEDIA COVERAGES & LIVE IN RUMORS AND PLACE HUGE BETS, BELIEVE IN CARRY ALONG WITH THE MOB IN THE MARKETS...ETC. ALL THE MORE, TAKE VERY FRAGILE DECISIONS AND UN-MINDFULLY INVITE HIGH-RISKS, UNFORTUNATELY GO INTO DUST...UN-NOTICED!!!!

SENSEX-1991-2015

Year	Open	High	Low	Close
1991	1027.38	1955.29	947.14	1908.85
1992	1965.68	4546.58	1945.48	2615.37
1993	2617.78	3459.07	1980.06	3346.06
1994	3436.87	4643.31	3405.88	3926.9
1995	3910.16	3943.66	2891.45	3110.49
1996	3114.08	4131.22	2713.12	3085.2
1997	3096.65	4605.41	3096.65	3658.98
1998	3658.34	4322	2741.22	3055.41
1999	3064.95	5150.99	3042.25	5005.82
2000	5209.54	6150.69	3491.55	3972.12
2001	3990.65	4462.11	2594.87	3262.33
2002	3262.01	3758.27	2828.48	3377.28
2003	3383.85	5920.76	2904.44	5838.96
2004	5872.48	6617.15	4227.5	6602.69
2005	6626.49	9442.98	6069.33	9397.93
2006	9422.49	14035.3	8799.01	13786.91
2007	13827.77	20498.11	12316.1	20286.99
2008	20325.27	21206.77	7697.39	9647.31
2009	9720.55	17530.94	8047.17	17464.81
2010	17473.45	21108.64	15651.99	20509.09
2011	20621.61	20664.8	15135.86	15454.92
2012	15534.67	19612.18	15358.02	19426.71
2013	19513.45	21483.74	17448.71	21170.68
2014	21222.19	28822.37	19963.12	27499.42
2015	27485.77	30024.74	26776.12	27011.31

THERMAX--- MERRY CHRISTMAS...!!!!

MIND BOGGLING YET…

I WAS AMAZED TO SEE THE PRICE ROCKETED TO CREATE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN ME.

I BOUGHT 1000 SHARES OF THERMAX FOR Rs 38.65, 15 YEARS BACK,

TODAY, THE PRICE OF THERMAX IS Rs 1050/- OF Rs 2/- FACE VALUE (EQUAL TO Rs 5150/-). IN OTHER WORDS, ONE LAKH INVESTED HAS BECOME MORE THAN 66 LAKHS.

EVEN RECENTLY, 2-3 YEARS BACK, I FOUND MARKSAN AT Rs 2.30 NOW IT IS QUOTING Rs 64/-.

ALSO FOUND MORARJEE TEXTILES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 61, INDOCOUNT INDUSTRIES AT Rs 7.0 NOW TOUCHED A HIGH OF Rs 390/-.

BUT THE ABOVE THREE WERE JUST MEMORIES BUT NO PARTICIPATION……

==============================================

MERRY CHRISTMAS TO YOU AND ALL INVESTORS & TRADERS…

Solar energy-breakthrough

Solar energy prices to come down with tech breakthrough

M RAMESH

CHENNAI, OCTOBER 27:  

As India gears up for solar projects under the recently-overhauled National Solar Mission programme, a breakthrough in polysilicon manufacturing promises to make solar energy at ₹6 or less per kilowatt-hour (kWhr) possible.

Across the world, solar technologists have been grappling with the issue of converting more of sun’s energy falling on solar panels into electricity. While chasing ‘efficiency’ has been the primary means of achieving cost-reduction, a US-headquartered company, which is active in India, has achieved a technological breakthrough in the manufacture of Polysilicon, a key raw material.

SunEdison’s “high pressure fluidised bed reactor” technology has made energy costs of producing polysilicon “irrelevant”, according to Pashupathy Gopalan, who head’s the US solar giant’s Asia-Pacific operations.

Effective

Conventional manufacturing processes consumes 40-50 kWhr of electricity to make a kilogram of polysilicon. In contrast, SunEdison’s FBR technology would need 3-5 kWhr. A corollary of this is the point that with energy costs coming down so drastically, it now makes sense to put up a polysilicon plant in India.

The FBR technology was recently implemented in a polysilicon plant in Korea, a joint venture of SunEdison and Samsung Fine Chemicals.

Cost factor

The technology will enable SunEdison — which is a solar power plant owner as well as a polysilicon and modules producer — to deliver ‘400 Watt peak’ modules at cost of 40 US dollar cents by 2016.

In simpler terms, this means you would need 25,000 of SunEdison’s modules per MW of solar power capacity, against 33,000 of conventional ones. As a result, the plant would call for lesser land and “balance of systems” such as electrical and civil work. Consequently, the costs will come down considerably and solar power developers could profitably sell their electricity at ₹6 a unit, Pashupathy Gopalan told BusinessLine.

Asked if SunEdison would put up a polysilicon plant in India, he noted that such a project would call for an investment of about $2 billion and a decision would depend upon the Government’s support. While India has the lure of the market, other countries are more attractive for large-scale projects.

The recently-reworked National Solar Mission has raised the targets. The Government wants to see 15 GW by 2019, as part of its 100 GW ambition, compared with the earlier target of 22,000 by 2020.

SunEdison owns about 100 MW of solar power plants in India, and is building a 100 more and is the largest foreign investor in the Indian solar sector.

(This article was published on October 27, 2014)

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/macro-economy/solar-energy-prices-to-come-down-with-tech-breakthrough/article6538683.ece

Black money in India: HSBC list has 628 names, top amount $18 mn

Appu Esthose Suresh | New Delhi | Updated: Oct 26 2014, 13:47 IST

Only about a fifth of the individuals or entities named in the so-called HSBC black money list on India of alleged foreign account holders have acknowledged their ownership of the accounts. These individuals or entities — 136 in number — have either paid, or are in the process of paying, penalties for concealing incomes.

The HSBC black money list contains names and holdings of individuals or entities with accounts in the Geneva branch of HSBC's Swiss subsidiary HSBC Private Bank. The information was stolen from the bank by a former employee on a particular day in 2006. The list was given to India by France in June 2011.

According to documents accessed by The Indian Express, the HSBC list contains names of 628 Indian individuals or entities. The Income Tax Department has so far found matches between names and addresses in 418 cases. In 282 of these cases, however, either the account number or the balance in the account is not available.

In general, the list contains four sets of information: name, address, account number and balance.

Of the 136 individuals or entities who have acknowledged the accounts, many have pleaded that they were not aware of their existence, but would pay the tax and penalty due, senior I-T officers involved in the investigation said. Many of these 136 accounts show zero balance.

The addresses against 12 of the 418 names in the list belong to Kolkata. However, only six have confirmed that the account belongs to them.

The highest amount in the list is $ 18 million, allegedly belonging to two top industrialists.

The most common surnames on the list are Mehta and Patel.

French authorities had secured the list from software technologist Hervé Falciani, who has been collaborating with several European countries tracking suspected tax evaders with accounts in Swiss banks. The list contains alleged account data on the date Falciani procured them.

The Indian Express was the first to report in August 2011 that the French had handed over to India the list of HSBC account holders of Indian origin. The government is in the process of sending a list of 50 names from the 136 to Swiss authorities to confirm the authenticity of the information.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/black-money-in-india-hsbc-list-has-628-names-top-amount-18-mn/1301633

THE INDIAN MARKETS FUTURE JOURNEY....

PHENOMENAL RISE&HIGHs but A Denial for NOW….

The Indian markets have performed stupendously, like a race against all ODDs and against all emerging markets. We are the best performing Indices YTD or for the quarter. The Rise is so phenomenal that no-body expected but few could CASH the opportunity. Now many new entrants are making inquiries and many more are looking as a decent opportunity to make HUGE money to meet their DREAMS.

The fact is that, since January-14, Nifty rose by 20%, Mid-Caps by 30% and Small caps by 55%, some Individual stocks rose by 400-700% from their LOWs. The hype generated now is due to change in the Government, a market friendly team at the top. But the fact is that No-body could SELL the National property via LIBERALIZATION for no reason, nor for a simple cause. The National growth based on immediate requirements and will be judged by prioritising/striking a right balance between “NECESSITY & COMMERCIALIZATION”. The Future is GOOD as huge investments will take place and the results will come in due course of time.

As far as the Stock Markets rise is concerned, a dead cheap stocks are at a historic low was one of the major reasons for FIIs relentless investments. The Global markets are also encouraging and FREE Supply/HIGH Liquidity is driving the markets for NOW. Very few are working on the REAL worth for the paper but relying on the PROJECTIONS. The Nifty is POISED for touching 9000+ as experts are working on the next 3-year EARNINGS and P/E that could safely take us above the above said number. I am not pessimistic but play a realistic role for valuing the Available Opportunity. The main reason for Nifty may seek SOUTHWARD JOURNEY because of looming DROUGHT, Poor Investments made by the CORPORATES in the Preceding/Previous 2-3 years, so NO earnings Surprise by the top companies.

So, the scenario is GLOOM in the Short-term, however the POLICY push can give some bounce but for the next ONE year will be very challenging. The Nifty stocks are moving up but the UN-Winding is a concern. The rise from here may not be that much sharp or serious, from here 2-Ups and 4-5 Downs. Because the FUTURE is promising, on any DEEP cut/ steep fall BULLs take charge to make a comeback to take away the Retail Investors most of the STOP-LOSSES.

THE BLOOM and GLOOM story…..THE MOMENTUM IS HIGH….

THE NIFTY MAY TOUCH 8785-8850 RANGE; BUT VERY LIKELY, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 7000, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 6600-6400 RANGE

THE BANK-NIFTY MAY TOUCH 20100-22000 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 12500-800, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 10100-10300 RANGE

THE RELIANCE MAY TOUCH 1450-1550 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 801-811, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 759-736 RANGE

THE ONGC MAY TOUCH 620-650 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 311-321, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 270 RANGE

THE SBI MAY TOUCH 3850-3950 RANGE, IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1920-1950, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 1450-1430 RANGE

THE ICICI MAY TOUCH 2130-2080 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 1180-1220, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 970-950 RANGE

THE RELCAPITAL MAY TOUCH 950-1050 RANGE;IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 440-415, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 330 RANGE

THE RELINFRA MAY TOUCH 1080-1150 RANGE; IN THE SHORT-TERM LOW MAY  TOUCH 520-540, NO SURPRISE EVEN IF IT TOUCHES 440 RANGE

WE CAN EXTEND AND READ MORE NUMBERS… BUT THE DENIAL IS RIDING HIGH EVEN IN MY MIND…

PLS DON’T BUY NOW UNTIL NIFTY TOUCHES 7250-80 RANGE, BUT THE ACTUAL BUYING IN QUALITY STOCKS SHALL EMERGE FROM 7000 ONLY. THOSE WHO ARE COMPULSIVE, SHALL TAKE A STOPLOSS ROUTE RATHER THAN HOLDING FOR LONGER…THW WAIT MAY BE 3 YEARS…!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

NIFTY PERFORMANCE...!!!

http://capitalmind.in/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/image.png

Telecom firms’ profit growth ...profits rise...!!!!

Telecom firms’ profit growth will double in two years: Crisil
OUR BUREAUTo ride on tariff hikes, increase in data and value-added services
MUMBAI, DEC 26:The operating profits of large telecom companies are forecast to rise 20 per cent over the next two years. This is twice the operating profits of about 10 per cent a year posted by the operators in the last five years, according to a Crisil study.
Half of this increase would be from tariff increases, whereas the other half would be contributed by increased data and value-added services (VAS), the study added.
“Our estimates show there is still a 50 per cent gap between headline tariffs and average realised rate per minute (ARPM) due to discounted call rates offered to many subscribers.
With competitive intensity easing, telecom companies are in a better position to reduce the discounts and crunch the gap,” said Crisil Ratings Senior Director Sudip Sural.
This will contribute about half of the rise in operating profits, he added.
Revenue contribution from data and VAS could touch 20 per cent in the medium term from 16 per cent in the last fiscal. This is because large telecom players are seeing data usage more than doubling in the first half of this fiscal from the year ago period.
This trend is expected to continue, following a near doubling of smartphone sales over the last financial year and higher 3G penetration due to reduction in 3G prices. This will contribute to the balance of rise in operating profits, it said.
Crisil believes that the pricing power, which started returning a few months ago, will sustain over the next 2-3 years. For the Crisil-rated large telcos, ARPMs stabilised in 2012-13, while it improved by around five per cent in the first half of the current fiscal as tariffs were hiked in select circles.
REGULATORY TAILWINDS
With clarity emerging in policies, the industry is now seeing tailwinds from the regulatory side. The crucial issues of spectrum availability and pricing have been partially addressed with the finalisation of the reserve price for the next round of auction in January 2014.
While these signal better times for operators, a caveat is due: how quickly the rest of the regulatory creases are ironed out will remain the key question.
While the upcoming auctions will help arrive at a market determined spectrum price, other regulatory issues such as one-time fees for excess spectrum, spectrum usage charges, re-farming of spectrum in the 900 MHz band and a framework for spectrum sharing and trading remain pending.
An early resolution of these will be critical to the health of the sector.
rajesh.kurup@thehindu.co.in(This article was published on December 26, 2013)

Gamification ........!!!!!!!!!!!

Gamification — should start-ups be interested?

Fad or no fad, there is too much interest in gamification for it to be ignored

November 16, 2013:  

It is easy to see why some new concepts like gamification can be deemed a passing fancy.Very often, there isn’t enough believable data or stories being told that help people understand the value of an emerging phenomenon.But entire corporations deploy people to delve into the space of gamification and invest resources in it (financial or others). And entire conferences all over the world are dedicated to the topic, drawing representation from large enterprises as well as entrepreneurs. ‘Gamified’, scheduled to take place in India next month, is no different.

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

Mario Herger was global head of the Gamification Initiative at SAP, before he co-founded the Austrian Innovation Centre Silicon Valley in 2013. His experience involves encounters with how gamification efforts in the enterprise can help multiple departments such as HR, training, sustainablity and banking.

“Bringing an enjoyable experience to work will never be a short term fad, especially when you see the numbers. One larger fact about gamification that is still not understood is that a gamified system collects a large amount of data on the skills and progress of a player…reliable and measurable data on employees’ performance. You cannot get that kind of data through other means. Ask me again: does this sound like a fad?” he challenges.Mario sees opportunities for entrepreneurs in India. “The work at call centres can be very challenging, given the nature of the job. Cranky customers, late work hours, feeling isolated at work, often difficult topics to solve, can put a drag on the job satisfaction. A gamified call centre can certainly help better connect with co-workers, learn more, and serve the customer better for the benefit of everyone,” he says.

When Jagdish Repaswal founded MangoReader, he intended to change how children and young people experience reading.He now defines MangoReader as a learning company that uses gamification as a technique to make reading fun and interactive. But he points out that gamification cannot make a badly written book interesting.Can gamification as a technique have multiple benefits in any sector? Jagdish says, “When used appropriately, gamification can enable people to become proactively diligent about their work. People can even be incentivised to teach others or learn from each other. Social incentivisation used in gamification can help drive productivity and maintain desired behaviours.

“But you don’t just build a product and make it fit in a given scenario (corporate, for example); it is best if products are built with a clear need in mind.”

BELIEF AND ACTION

Across the world there are several firm believers in gamification, with the US leading the field as a slightly more mature market. But consumers are not quick on the uptake.More so in India as Rahul Bendre, Kshitij Saxena and Shobhit Aggarwal have experienced.Their venture, 5Shells, is a gaming company that develops interactive content to create a ‘unique training experience’.One of their products, KingPin, is an experiential learning game that takes trainees through negotiation tactics, leadership skills and strategic decision making to provide generic and individual feedback.

Shobhit Aggarwal, an external advisor to the start-up, says, “Many people tend to think that negotiation skills are not important.Then they tend to be concerned with the money that has to be invested in training managers and others in a soft skill such as negotiation. The idea that games can be good in the corporate sector does not sit well in many minds. But we’ve managed to crack through some of those mental blocks.”In spite of initial challenges, the 5Shells team claims the game stands 1 – 1.5 points higher on a scale of 10 when compared with other well-known training companies.Clearly, the support of the NSRCEL makes a difference here. Jagdish Repaswal’s MangoReader was also incubated at the IIMA’s Centre for Innovation Incubation and Entrepreneurship.

Bottomline: As debates continue and mindsets get broken over time, the gamification sector lies as wide open for Indian entrepreneurs as to their counterparts elsewhere.

(This article was published on November 16, 2013)

 http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/gamification-should-startups-be-interested/article5358637.ece

UBS says 6,800 on Nifty possible post elections..!!!

Sachin P Mampatta  |  Mumbai  

October 16, 2013 Last Updated at 13:25 IST

UBS says 6,800 on Nifty possible post elections
Drop below 5,500 level good opportunity to buyThe National Stock Exchange’s benchmark index, the Nifty, could potentially reach 6,800 levels after the elections on the back of growth in earnings.
Also any drop below the 5,500 level could be an opportunity to buy, according to an India market strategy report from international financial services firm UBS Securities India.
“Our view remains that any new government is more likely to take steps to course correct the economy. Nifty could potentially reach 6800…post elections…assuming 15% earnings growth in FY15. But near-term volatility may increase as we approach elections. We view the risk-reward to buy as attractive below Nifty 5500 levels,” said the report dated 11th October and authored by analyst Gautam Chhaochharia and associate analyst Sanjena Dadawala.
Social media may also have a bearing on the elections this time around, according to the report. It noted that broadband penetration has increased from 0.65% or 7.7 million people in 2009 to 1.2% or 15 million. Also total internet penetration is up from 60 million people to 160 million.  
“A survey conducted in the first half of the year has concluded that social media may affect the vote in as many as 160 constituencies (out of 543) – on the basis that internet users in these constituencies are larger than the margin of victory in the last elections,” said the report.
http://www.business-standard.com/article/markets/ubs-says-6-800-on-nifty-possible-post-elections-113101600285_1.html

Global growth at four-month low, but stocks rally

Reuters | Updated On: March 06, 2013 02:11 (IST)
Global economic growth slowed to a four-month low in February, according to service sector surveys on Tuesday, but China's pledge to boost government spending to achieve 7.5 percent growth this year may help support activity in Europe and the United States also.

Growth was led by the vast US services sector, where it accelerated to its fastest pace in a year in  February, helped by a pick-up in new orders and demand for exports.

But France, Spain and Italy dragged the euro zone into a deeper downturn, earlier data showed, highlighting a widening chasm between these countries and prosperous Germany.
Meanwhile, data on China's increasingly important services sector showed that growth cooled in February and was in line with slower factory activity that suggests a modest rebound in the country's economy this year.
"Although the rate of expansion eased to a four-month low, the loss of momentum was only slight and improving inflows of new business raise the chances of a near-term reacceleration," said David Hensley, director of global economics coordination at JPMorgan.
The Global Total Output index, produced by JPMorgan with research and supply management organizations, slipped to 53.0 in February from 53.2 in January, comfortably above the 50 mark that divides growth from contraction.
A global index covering services firms edged down to 53.3 last month from 53.4. A similar manufacturing PMI released on Friday fell to 50.8.
On Wall Street though, China's policy announcement and the good data on the US service sector combined with supportive Federal Reserve monetary policy all combined to lift the Dow Jones industrial average to a record high, eclipsing the previous intraday high reached in October 2007, when the world was heading toward the financial crisis.
Stocks in Europe also surged, with the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index hitting its highest closing level in 4-1/2 years, boosted by corporate outlooks and expectations for continued stimulus from global central banks, even as Europe's troubled economy deteriorated further.

CHINA PLEDGE

In China, outgoing Premier Wen Jibao, speaking at the opening of the annual session of parliament, announced record-high government spending for 2013. The plan is the blueprint for the incoming administration led by Xi Jinping, who will formally take over as president at the end of the session, with Li Keqiang taking over as premier.
As part of the measures announced on Tuesday to promote growth, the Ministry of Finance said China would boost fiscal spending in 2013, raising the fiscal deficit target to 2.0 percent of gross domestic product, its highest since 2010 and up from 1.6 percent in 2012.
China's economy, the world's second biggest, grew by 7.8 percent in 2012, its slowest pace in 13 years.
The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index for China showed a pullback in growth in February, with the index falling to 52.1 from January's 54.0, after seasonal adjustments. The services sector accounts for 46 percent of China's economy.
Qu Hongbin, HSBC's chief China economist, attributed the pull-back in services growth in part to a clampdown on wasteful state spending by Beijing, such as forbidding officials from hosting extravagant meals.
Distortions from the Lunar New Year holiday, which fell in February this year as opposed to January in 2012, may also have contributed to swings in the PMI data even though the series is seasonally adjusted.
"We expect a continuous modest improvement of service sector growth in coming months, thanks to healthy labor market conditions and the ongoing recovery of manufacturing growth," he said.

U.S. SERVICE SECTOR SURPRISE

In the United States, the services sector, which dominates the economy, posted its fastest pace of growth in a year in February. The expansion came even as the federal government is tightening spending and consumers are adjusting to a decline in disposable income following an increase in the payroll tax at the beginning of the year.

The Institute for Supply Management said its services index rose to 56 from 55.2 in January, exceeding economists' forecasts for 55. It was the highest level since February 2012. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

"This was no question a positive number," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon. "It reflects improvement and reinforces the view that the economy continues to improve and should contribute to gains that have driven the stock market to a new record."

The measure of the backlog of orders was at its highest since May 2011 at 54.5 against 49. But the employment index weakened slightly, edging down to 57.2 from 57.5 in January.

EUROPE STRUGGLES

In Europe, economic gloom continued to be the message of the day, however.

Purchasing managers indexes showed that France, Spain and Italydragged the 17-member euro zone into a deeper downturn in February. Markit's Eurozone Composite PMI, a broad gauge of activity at thousands of companies across the euro zone, fell to 47.9 from 48.6 in January. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

A reading of 53.3 for Germany's PMI stood in sharp contrast to the reading of 43.1 for the French PMI.

The outlook for the euro zone depends largely on whether Germanycan keep up its economic growth and offset weakness in the bloc's next three biggest economies - France, Italy and Spain, according toChris Williamson, chief economist at PMI compiler Markit.

He said that "seems a tall order, meaning hopes of a return to growth for the region by mid-2013 are now looking too optimistic."

Britain's services PMI, which accounts for the bulk of its economy, hit a five-month high of 51.8 last month from 51.5 in January, beating the median forecast of 51.0 in a Reuters poll.

Copyright @ Thomson Reuters 2013
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